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Author Topic: TC Yasi - Update  (Read 2473 times)

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TC Yasi - Update
« on: February 01, 2011, 08:50:05 PM »
For those that are interested, attached is a transcript of a press conference this morning (Tuesday 1 February) by the Premier and Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart.

Cheers
Paul

Premier and Minister for the Arts
The Honourable Anna Bligh
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
TRANSCRIPT - PRESS CONFERENCE - 9:30AM TUESDAY 1 FEB
RE: CYCLONE YASI
PREMIER ANNA BLIGH: There has been some changes with Cyclone Yasi overnight. Cyclone Yasi overnight has got faster. It has gone further north and it is intensifying. It has now speeded up to a system travelling at approximately 40km an hour. What this means is that the most likely crossing time is at 1am on Thursday morning. It has moved north and the high risk area is now between Cairns and Innisfail and the cyclone warning area has extended as far north as Cooktown. We expect to see gale force and destructive winds from the Mossman to Ayr-Home Hill area. I should say in relation to predictions at this stage, sometime tomorrow morning, the Bureau of Meteorology has a radar station on Willis Island, which is east of Cairns. The cyclone is expected to cross Willis Island sometime tomorrow morning. The staff who are located on Willis Island have a Category 5 cyclone shelter, but it will come onto their radar system at that point. At that point, we will be likely to have a crossing point down to about a 50km degree of accuracy and precision. This cyclone has also intensified overnight. It is now most likely to cross the coast at an upper level Category 4. By comparison, Cyclone Larry was a mid level Category 4. So we are expecting to see winds of more than 250km an hour, and these are winds of higher intensity than Cyclone Larry. This of course is not only a system now tracking as more intense than Cyclone Larry, it is significantly larger than Cyclone Larry. So the areas on the north and south of the crossing point will likely to experience significant weather disruptions. This system is so big that even at low tide 100km south of the centre we would expect to see some tidal storm surge activity. If there is any silver lining here, the movement of the cyclone slightly north has meant that when it travels west and goes inland, it is less likely to drop all of that massive rainfall into the Central Queensland catchment areas that have already experienced flooding and more likely, no guarantees, but more likely to head into the gulf and take the rain into areas more able to cope with it. This system is such a large system that the eye of this cyclone, that is the period that people in the immediate area will experience as a period of calm could last for more than an hour, and it’s very important that people understand that calm is not an opportunity to go walking outside and to have a look around. This is such a big system that they eye could last for more than an hour and at the end of that period the next thing that will be felt is the strongest possible winds. So those people who are in the eye of this storm, we’re getting this message out early so that people know not to get out and about. Cyclone warnings will start today at 11 o’clock. As I said it will extend from Cooktown in the north down into the southern areas around Ayr and Home Hill. But those people who are not in the critical area between Cairns and Innisfail need to prepare for significant and difficult weather as well. It’s likely that those on the Atherton Tablelands will experience weather conditions of around a Category 3 cyclone. Townsville can expect wind and other weather conditions of around a Category 2 cyclone and Mackay and Whitsundays can expect Category 1 conditions, that is, heavy rainfall, very rough weather, high seas and strong winds. So we will expect to see very difficult and potentially dangerous weather a long way down the coast out of the danger zone.
This system will be accompanied by significant storm surge activity that could or is likely to lead to very high amounts of water coming into flash flooding in the areas that are affected. If this cyclone does hit as currently predicted around 1am, that thankfully will be low tide. However, if it accelerates or slows down, it could come back into the high tide range. So the storm surge warnings for low lying and waterfront areas remain, and people on either side of the Cairns and Innisfail areas should still be taking every precaution and considering relocation. As you can see, there has been some changes overnight and we can expect that there might be some further changes in the next 24 to 36 hours. That means that we are making decisions and giving advice in a highly volatile situation. What we do know is that we can expect to see devastating and destructive winds in this region as early as tomorrow morning. That means that travel after about 8am tomorrow, travel anywhere north of Townsville is going to be extremely difficult. We would anticipate that airports are likely to close tomorrow and we would expect that major roads are likely to be either shut or have very limited access on them and that the driving conditions will be very, very extreme. So really what that means, today is the time to act. Today is the last opportunity for people to safely prepare for this event. Preparation means firstly if you are in a low lying or waterfront area in the danger zone and beyond, you need to relocate yourself and your family. Local disaster management groups are meeting in each of these areas this morning and a number of them will take a decision to move to mandatory relocations and evacuations. If you have an emergency service officer or a police officer knock on your door and ask you and your family to move, I ask you to cooperate with them. What we’ve seen in the last five weeks is that where communities cooperated with authorities, we were able to protect lives. Where communities got enough warning to prepare, we could keep them safe. We do have time to prepare but that time is now and it is today.
For those who are not in those waterfront low lying areas but in the affected zone, you need to take action to protect your property, that is, to lock away your vehicles, to put away outdoor garden furniture and to lock away anything that could become a missile in cyclonic winds. Anyone from Mackay to Cooktown needs to prepare to be self-sufficient for a period of time. The size and extremity of this storm will take down powerlines, will take out electricity substations. You need to prepare for a period of time without electricity. That means getting batteries for torches and radios. It means stocking up on food and fuel and it means making sure you’ve got candles and other equipment that will see you and your family through a period without electricity. We can’t say how long that might be, but we do know in some places it could be for an extended period of time. There are people who in this region who are trying to leave the region today, particularly people who are tourists or visitors to the region, and I know that people are getting advice that airlines are full. Can I say that the major airlines Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin will be putting on extra flights into the region today. So can I encourage people if you are wanting to leave by air, today is the last opportunity to do that most likely, and you should contact airlines and let them know that you want to be on one of the flights that they will bring in today. In relation particularly now that the cyclone has moved north and the very strong likelihood of tidal, sorry, of storm surge, floodwaters, we are now looking very seriously at an evacuation of Cairns Base Hospital. Cairns Base Hospital is on the Esplanade and will be susceptible to storm surge. There are approximately 300 patients who are currently in-patients and who may need to be completely evacuated to Brisbane. And there is a further 60 patients at the Cairns Private Hospital that’s similarly located. Work is now occurring with the Australian Defence Force to do a massive evacuation potentially out of the Cairns Hospital later today.
JOURNALIST: When will that decision be made, Premier?
PREMIER: That will be made in the next couple of hours when we have refined the storm surge advice from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Department of Environment and Resource Management experts. Finally, can I just say that all schools, Catholic, independent and state schools in the Far North Queensland district will be closed for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week. Letters will be going out with children going home from school today and I advise parents that all schools in the Catholic education, independent and state sectors in the Far North Queensland region, that extends down to south of Townsville, will be closed. For a further 62 schools in the North Queensland region will be closed on Wednesday, depending on where this cyclone hits, but on current advice, that’s where we would expect to see most schools in this region closed. All schools close Wednesday and most closed Thursday and Friday as well. Ladies and gentlemen, this storm is huge and it is life threatening. Being well prepared is our best defence. I know many of us will feel that Queensland has already borne about as much as we can bear when it comes to disasters and storms, but more is being asked of us and I am confident that we are able to rise to this next challenge. We have redeployed considerable staff and we will do more today. Swift water rescue teams, emergency staff and extra police are already in place and more will be deployed into the Cooktown and Cairns regions today. We will have every available resource on site and in place in the event that this cyclone as currently predicted crosses our coast in the next 48 hours or so. Ian, did you want to add to that?
DEPUTY COMMISIONER IAN STEWART: Thank you Premier. Can I just reiterate, please make no mistake. This storm is a deadly event. People need to take action between now and tomorrow morning, after which time in the high impact areas it will be unsafe to travel. So do not make any mistake, do not be undecided. Take action now either to prepare yourself to shelter in place, if you are out of the storm surge areas, and that information is available through local government, either on their websites or by telephone. But if you are in those storm surge zones, you must relocate voluntarily, or as the Premier rightly said later on today there will probably, most probably be mandatory evacuation orders made and that is likely by lunch time today. So now is the time to act, prepare yourself, relocate out of the high risk zones if that is at all possible. That is the best information that we can give you at this time. Thank you.
PREMIER: I should add on that point that I have the Minister for Emergency Services and myself have this morning signed a pre-emptive disaster declarations for all local government areas in the Central Queensland, Northern Queensland, Far Northern Queensland and Western areas to ensure that police and emergency workers required to do a mandatory evacuation will have all legal powers to do so. But as we’ve seen over the last five weeks, I would hope they do not use to use those powers. We will only get through this with cooperation and working together and I’m confident that the people of Northern and Far Northern Queensland will be safer if they can do that.
JOURNALIST: Will the defence force be assisting with any other evacuations apart from Cairns Hospital?
PREMIER: At this stage we’re not in need of any Defence Force assets for other evacuations, but that will be monitored on a regular basis. We do have senior representatives of the ADF on the State Disaster Management Group and on the local group in Townsville and they stand ready to deploy and we’re most likely to need their assistance after this event has crossed the coast.
JOURNALIST: Where will the patients be taken to?
PREMIER: They will be accommodated here in Brisbane. Some elective surgery may need to be cancelled to accommodate those patients, but across the southeast we have spare capacity in hospitals and that is being managed as I speak. So it’s a very big exercise. Some patients, and that’s the health, the hospital workers in Cairns are now working. Some patients may be able to return home maybe a day earlier than they planned, others will need to be relocated.
JOURNALIST: Did you say how many there is?
PREMIER: There are between 250 and 300 patients who may need evacuation. It’s in a range because we’re now working with every single patient, some who are able to go home may prefer to do so and may well be safer in doing so. So that exercise is occurring right now. The Cairns Base Hospital is on the Esplanade. It is very likely to be subject to significant storm surge activity if the cyclone hits on its current forecast pattern. We don’t want to be undertaking this exercise tomorrow in destructive gale force winds, so we’ll be looking at it today.
JOURNALIST: How will they be transported to Brisbane, the patients, is there..
PREMIER: They will be taken with a combination obviously of ambulances to the airport in Cairns and transported by a Hercules by the ADF is the current plan.
JOURNALIST: Premier, where is that going to leave Cairns’ ability to deal with medical emergencies once the cyclone hits.
PREMIER: Thank you, good question. There are other health facilities in Cairns that are not in the tidal storm surge zone which will be equipped to deal with medical emergencies. So there will be another facility in Cairns and they’re just working through which one it will be. That is out of the immediate storm surge area that will be equipped to deal with medical emergencies. Cairns staff and doctors and nurses will be staying in Cairns to manage those emergencies.
JOURNALIST: So where is that? Where should people go in…
PREMIER: We’ll be able to advise you. They have a number of health facilities and they’re just currently working out which one is best. But there are a couple of options and they may in fact end up with two or three on the northern and southern sides of Cairns. So that will be advised to people in Cairns throughout the day should the evacuation occur.
JOURNALIST: Does the evacuation message still extend to people south of Townsville, that far south?
PREMIER: Yes, we do expect to see, as I said, in Townsville Category 2 cyclonic conditions and in Mackay Category 1. We are unlikely to see the storm surge that we were worried about in places like Mackay if the cyclone hits at low tide. But that is still a very big if. It accelerated overnight and if it accelerated again overnight tonight, that could move it into a high tide range. So I understand that people want absolute accuracy. Unfortunately in these events there is a level of volatility and some people may relocate and ultimately it’s unnecessary. I would rather you were inconvenienced for three days than have your lives threatened by dangerous, fast-rising, powerful storm surge waters. So the message to people in those areas is still if you’re in a low lying area, if you’re on the waterfront and you can relocate, it is the safest and best thing to do.
JOURNALIST: Ian, you spoke of mandatory evacuations at lunch time today. Where will they be happening?
STEWART: Certainly in the high impact areas and that will obviously in the Cairns area and south. One of the challenges that we have with this is the moving nature of where landfall may be. And again, that’s why we haven’t specified that because we need everyone to be prepared. On the southern side of landfall, we will expect significant storm surge and again this is going to be impacted by the timing because of the tides. So mandatory evacuation orders will probably be put in place for all areas from… certainly Mossman, probably all the way down to at least Cardwell.
JOURNALIST: So how many people potentially is that involving?
STEWART: It’s about a quarter of a million in that total area, but obviously not all of them live on the front in those storm surge areas. But the mapping provides people with an indication whether their residence is located in that, and people need to go online or to ring their local council to find out if they’re in a high-risk area.
PREMIER: But we are talking about thousands of people in those at-risk areas of storm surge if we see this come into the Cairns region.
JOURNALIST: There won’t be mandatory evacuations in Townsville or Ayr or Mackay?
STEWART: It is possible. Whilst I mention Cardwell, the timing of this and the, as the information becomes clearer as we get nearer to landfall, which is still expected to be in the early, in the early hours of Thursday morning or late on Wednesday evening, as that becomes narrower and narrower, we will have a much better idea where that is. So we may put mandatory orders in place so that we can act right up to the last possible moment to ask people to get out. Now, that is likely to be before 8 to 10am tomorrow morning.
JOURNALIST: When’s the next update from the Weather Bureau?
PREMIER: There will be further information and modelling on storm surge activity around 11 o’clock today provided to councils and so that will be available and information about mandatory evacuations around lunch time or just after lunch time. The Weather Bureau will update all of its models again in time for the five o’clock State Disaster Management Group meeting. In terms of tracking these sorts of changes, there needs to be a bit of time in between the models to get an indication of movement.
JOURNALIST: Premier, are you anticipating doing another one of these briefings (inaudible)
PREMIER: Look, I think it would be useful. I’m conscious that we may have more information in relation to mandatory movement by then, and I’ll probably have confirmation on Cairns Base Hospital and the other emergency medical treatment facilities in Cairns. So it is, as I said, a changing volatile situation. We’re trying to give people the information they need. We can’t give people with the same sort of precision that you can with a slowly moving rising river in a flood, and people will just have to accept that this volatile information or this volatile situation, we give you as much information so that you can make the best decision for you and your family. Okay. Thanks.
STEWART: Thank you.



 

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